Europe’s Climate Crossroads: The Fight Over the 2040 Emissions Target

Overview

The European Commission has proposed a 90% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. The goal signals ambition, but EU countries remain split on how to make it happen.

A New Climate Benchmark

The European Commission’s new proposal aims to cut the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. This is part of a larger climate roadmap of climate neutrality by 2050. The 2040 target isn’t legally binding yet but is expected to shape future EU laws and investment priorities.

Proposed Benefits of 2040 Target:

  • Provide certainty to businesses

  • Guide national policies

  • Ensure the EU stays on track to meet its long-term climate goals

Debate Over Carbon Credits

The 2040 target discussion also highlighted divisions over how the EU should count emissions reductions, specifically the role of carbon removals and credits.

  • Some countries, including France, argued that the EU should place greater emphasis on carbon removal methods, such as carbon capture technologies or absorbing emissions through natural processes.

  • Other governments pushed back, warning that relying too much on carbon credits could undermine the real effort to cut emissions at the source. They stressed that the focus should remain on reducing actual greenhouse gas output rather than offsetting it.

This disagreement reflects a broader tension in the EU's climate strategy: how to balance emissions cuts with emerging technologies and accounting tools. The way these credits are handled could significantly shape how the 90% reduction target is pursued and measured.

Political and National Tensions

Support for the target varies sharply across EU countries.

  • Spain has emerged as a vocal advocate, with Climate Minister Teresa Ribera backing strong climate ambition and calling for the EU to lead by example.

  • France also supports the target but insists that nuclear energy must be fully recognized as a low-carbon solution within EU rules.

  • Policymakers in Germany and Poland worry about the potential economic impact, specifically related to industrial competitiveness.

What Comes Next

If adopted, the 90% target will guide future EU climate laws, including updates to the emissions trading system, energy policy, and financial incentives for clean tech. It will also shape how the EU interacts with international partners and maintains its leadership in global climate diplomacy.

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